Stop guessing stock returns. Use claude to test any stock in minutes.

Jul 12, 2026

∙ Paid

Every investment decision starts with one question:

What annual return can I reasonably expect from this stock?

And there are 2 terrible ways to answer it:

Final answer:

Fair value: $147.32.
I should make exactly 17.52% a year.

Not 17%…Exactly 17.52%.

Because apparently they can predict the future down to 32 cents…

Great company. Huge market.
This can compound at 20% a year.

Maybe.But where does the 20% come from?

Both answers miss the point.

I use something simpler, but based on how the business works:

I expect about 20% a year:
15% from earnings growth, including 13% from volume and 2% from pricing.
+5% a year from a higher valuation multiple.

Now I know exactly what I am betting on.

Pricing: Can the company raise prices without hurting demand?
Volume: Can it really grow 13% a year? From new countries, more customers, or more usage from existing customers?
Margins: How much margin expansion is still left, and how much can it add to earnings growth?
Valuation: Does the stock still work if the multiple stays flat?

I taught Claude this way of thinking.

Then I turned it into a ready-to-use Skill called The Expected Return Check.

You can use it whenever you want to test the expected return of any stock.

Start with the return, then work backwards:

Let’s say you are studying Netflix

You want to know whether the stock can return 20% a year over the next 5 years.

You go to Claude
You call the skill “Expected Return Check”
You give it a stock, a target annual return, and a time horizon. ( Netflix exemple: )

In minutes, Claude creates an interactive web page with:

The investment case: what the business must do to reach your target return.
The key drivers: where Volume, Price, Mix, and Margin stand today, and what each one must add.

a simulator: change the business drivers or exit multiple.
Test Bear, Base, and Bull cases and see the expected return update at once.

Take a look at the Netflix results here: link

This Skill works in the normal Claude web app.

You do not need Claude Cowork app.

Quick reminder: A Claude Skill is a saved workflow inside Claude. You install it once, then run it whenever you need it.

Upload the Expected Return Check from the Skills Library, where I’ve grouped 20+ ready-to-use investing Skills in one place.

From this link :